Infrastructure and Housing Lead 2019-2020 List
Van Martin, CCIM, SIOR, CRE of Martin Commercial Properties, shared the current and emerging issues expected to have the most significant impact on real estate in 2019 and 2020, as identified by The Counselors of Real Estate. U.S. infrastructure and housing ranked as the leading concerns of the 1,100-member global real estate advisory organization
“Inadequate infrastructure creates a hard ceiling to economic development, and real estate values are tied to sustainable growth,” said Martin, a Counselor of Real Estate. “The U.S. must invest in infrastructure to compete globally, but right now it is lagging other nations on infrastructure investment.” The report cites that roads, bridges, tunnels, railways, airports, the power grid, water systems, and levees are giving way with greater frequency. While the White House and Congressional leadership have discussed funding of up to $2 trillion, it remains unclear what action government leaders will take.
Housing in America ranked second on The Counselors’ list, with the gap widening between increasingly expensive supply and the decreasing level of ability to pay. The underlying causes can be found both on the supply side and the demand side of the housing equation. “Housing affordability is threatening the stability of the middle class, which will hit other parts of the economy as well,” said Martin. “Additionally, the new limits on the deductibility of state and local taxes are affecting both urban and suburban homeowners, while the liquidity of the housing market has been compromised by the difficulty of the Baby Boomer generation in finding buyers for the homes that represent a major portion of their net worth.”
Weather and climate-related risks rounded out the top three issues of concern for The Counselors, as real estate investors are requiring that climate risk be assessed and factored into return projections and day-to-day decisions. The report states weather and climate-related risk has emerged as a new—and likely permanent—aspect of fiduciary duty and what it means to assess, disclose, and manage these risks for real estate investments. “Real estate investors can no longer rely on historic performance to predict future returns,” said Martin. “With the frequency and intensity of events increasing, weather and climate-related events present physical and operational risks for real property.”
The remaining issues identified by The Counselors of Real Estate are The Technology Effect, End-of-Cycle Economics, Political Division, Capital Market Risk, Population Migration, Volatility and Confidence, and Public and Private Indebtedness, respectively.
“Many of these issues are interrelated and thus influence one another,” said Martin. “Clients of Counselors seek unbiased, objective advice on the critical factors that will impact all property sectors today, as well as those issues that may affect their decisions over the next ten years. This thought leadership initiative is an invaluable service to those clients and to the real estate industry in general.”
The Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate™ are developed by The Counselors of Real Estate’s External Affairs Committee, with issues identified, debated, and voted on by the general membership. For additional information and perspective on each issue, visit https://www.cre.org/external-affairs/2019-20-top-ten-issues-affecting-real-estate/.
About The Counselors of Real Estate
The Counselors of Real Estate® is an international organization of commercial property professionals from leading real estate, financial, law, valuation, and business advisory firms, as well as real property experts in academia and government. Membership is selective and extended by invitation, although commercial real estate practitioners with 10 years of proven experience may apply.
Counselors have created and endowed the MIT Center for Real Estate, resolved the dispute between the developer of the World Trade Center and its insurers post 9/11, led the privatization of U.S. Army Housing, developed a multi-billion-dollar, 10-year master plan for Philadelphia Public Schools, and valued both the Grand Canyon and Yale University.
A stringent selection process ensures individuals that are awarded the CRE credential have attained the highest levels of expertise and achievement in their real estate specialty, particularly in offering sophisticated advice and high-level problem solving. The organization is known for thought leadership, extraordinary reach, an uncompromising commitment to ethics, and the objective identification of the issues and trends most likely to impact real estate. Counselors reside in 20 countries and U. S. territories, with only 1,100 professionals holding the CRE credential worldwide. For more information on The Counselors of Real Estate® and how to apply for membership, visit CRE.org.
Learn more about Martin Commercial Properties at martincommercial.com.